Domain adaptation uses the knowledge in asource domain to improve the performance of an algorithm onarelatedtargetdomain [1].

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) plays a crucial role in addressing distribution shifts in machine learning. In this work, we improve the theoretical foundations of UDA proposed in Acuna et al. (2021) by refining their

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) plays a crucial role in addressing distribution shifts in machine learning. In this work, we improve the theoretical foundations of UDA proposed in Acuna et al. (2021) by refining their

Out-of-distribution (OOD) data poses serious challenges in deployed machine learning models, so methods of predicting a model's performance on OOD data

We address the unsolved algorithm design problem of choosing a justified regularization parameter in unsupervised domain adaptation.

We describe a novel multi-agent, multi-scale computational cognitive interaction model of instrument operations at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). A leading scientific user facility, LCLS is the world's first hard x-ray free electron laser, operated by the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy. As the world's first x-ray free electron laser, LCLS is in high demand and heavily oversubscribed. Our overall project employs cognitive engineering methodologies to improve experimental efficiency and scientific productivity by refining experimental interfaces and workflows, simplifying tasks, reducing errors, and improving operator safety and stress levels. Our model simulates aspects of human cognition at multiple cognitive and temporal scales, ranging from seconds to hours, and among agents playing multiple roles, including instrument operator, real time data analyst, and experiment manager. The model can predict impacts stemming from proposed changes to operational interfaces and workflows. Because the model code is open source, and supplemental videos go into detail on all aspects of the model and results, this approach could be applied to other experimental apparatus and processes. Example results demonstrate the model's potential in guiding modifications to improve operational efficiency and scientific output. We discuss the implications of our findings for cognitive engineering in complex experimental settings and outline future directions for research.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) data poses serious challenges in deployed machine learning models, so methods of predicting a model's performance on OOD data without labels are important for machine learning safety. While a number of methods have been proposed by prior work, they often underestimate the actual error, sometimes by a large margin, which greatly impacts their applicability to real tasks. In this work, we identify pseudo-label shift, or the difference between the predicted and true OOD label distributions, as a key indicator to this underestimation. Based on this observation, we introduce a novel method for estimating model performance by leveraging optimal transport theory, Confidence Optimal Transport (COT), and show that it provably provides more robust error estimates in the presence of pseudo-label shift. Additionally, we introduce an empirically-motivated variant of COT, Confidence Optimal Transport with Thresholding (COTT), which applies thresholding to the individual transport costs and further improves the accuracy of COT's error estimates. We evaluate COT and COTT on a variety of standard benchmarks that induce various types of distribution shift -- synthetic, novel subpopulation, and natural -- and show that our approaches significantly outperform existing state-of-the-art methods with an up to 3x lower prediction error.

In machine learning models, the estimation of errors is often complex due to distribution bias, particularly in spatial data such as those found in environmental studies. We introduce an approach based on the ideas of importance sampling to obtain an unbiased estimate of the target error. By taking into account difference between desirable error and available data, our method reweights errors at each sample point and neutralizes the shift. Importance sampling technique and kernel density estimation were used for reweighteing. We validate the effectiveness of our approach using artificial data that resemble real-world spatial datasets. Our findings demonstrate advantages of the proposed approach for the estimation of the target error, offering a solution to a distribution shift problem. Overall error of predictions dropped from 7% to just 2% and it gets smaller for larger samples.

Statistical learning theory provides the foundation to applied machine learning, and its various successful applications in computer vision, natural language processing and other scientific domains. The theory, however, does not take into account the unique challenges of performing statistical learning in geospatial settings. For instance, it is well known that model errors cannot be assumed to be independent and identically distributed in geospatial (a.k.a. regionalized) variables due to spatial correlation; and trends caused by geophysical processes lead to covariate shifts between the domain where the model was trained and the domain where it will be applied, which in turn harm the use of classical learning methodologies that rely on random samples of the data. In this work, we introduce the geostatistical (transfer) learning problem, and illustrate the challenges of learning from geospatial data by assessing widely-used methods for estimating generalization error of learning models, under covariate shift and spatial correlation. Experiments with synthetic Gaussian process data as well as with real data from geophysical surveys in New Zealand indicate that none of the methods are adequate for model selection in a geospatial context. We provide general guidelines regarding the choice of these methods in practice while new methods are being actively researched.